In one of his most important meetings, Erdogan brought together Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev and the Armenia Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan hoping to find a solution to the three-decade dispute between the neighbors.
According to Turkish media reports, during the meeting, Yerevan-Baku peace pacts were discussed by the leaders.
Turkey and Armenia held the first round of negotiations after 13 years, describing it “positive and constructive” and expressing optimism about resuming the ties and reopening the borders. Ankara has had no diplomatic or trade relations with Yerevan since the 1990s, and this meeting is the first attempt to restore relations between the two sides.
This meeting was the first tripartite one among the heads of the three countries and the first round after the recent tensions in Karabakh and demonstrates that Erdogan is aspiring to play an important role in the developments in South Caucasus. Previously, Russia was playing a role in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and mediated in situations to defuse war possibility and lead the two countries to a peace path when tensions escalated. But Russia is busy with Ukraine war and Moscow’s leaders are less active in the Karabakh issue, and this is a good opportunity for Erdogan, who has always tried to assume a leadership role in the region. Actually, the Turkish leader is trying to take over Karabakh case, in which he in recent years also played a part by supporting Baku. If the path to resolve the differences between Azerbaijan and Armenia is paved, he will take the credit and brag that every success and diplomatic progress that happens in the region is due to his initiatives, as at the beginning of the Ukraine crisis, by mediating between Moscow and Kiev, he tried to end the conflict and advertise himself as the savior of the world.
Seeking Turkey-Armenia rapprochement
Erdogan, who had been in tensions with many countries in the region due to his ambitions in the past decade, has now changed his policy with the emergence of extensive internal problems and has shifted his direction towards regional de-escalation.
After normalizing relations with the Arab sheikhdoms and the Israeli regime and trying to resume relations with Syria, now Armenia is on the list and the Turkish leaders are trying to normalize with a country with which Turkey has had an over-a-century dispute.
Relations between Turkey and Armenia have always been chilly due to Armenia’s claims about genocide of one and a half million Armenians by the Ottoman Empire in 1915 in the midst of World War I. Every year the Congress, the US government, and the European Union make statements condemning the mass killings, angering Ankara officials. Therefore, Turkey wants to dispose of international pressures forever by patching up relations with Armenia.
The push for normalization with Armenia comes as Turkey stood by Azerbaijan full-force in Karabakh dispute and even in the 2020 war that led to recapture of Azerbaijani territories from Armenia, Turkey sent arms and forces to assist the Azerbaijani forces. When Azerbaijan laid the foundation of Zenjur corridors that cut Iran’s borders with Armenia, Ankara backed Baku in pursuit of its ambitions in South Caucasus.
Since South Caucasus is geopolitically and geostrategically important, Turkey is seeking to make a bridge to Central Asian states and Azerbaijan by normalizing to Armenia as the latter is a buffer between Azerbaijan and Turkey.
Countering European and Iranian influence
Erdogan’ historical meeting with Pashinyan came after the European countries led by France said they intend to send a delegation to Karabakh dispute. This move has some stealth goals, though the Europeans insist it is meant to de-escalate the tensions and help draw the borders between the two neighbors. The Europeans seek presence in South Caucasus to revive their mediator role under Minsk agreements.
Erdogan, unhappy with the EU for its bitter criticism in the Turkish tensions with Greece and also for the rejection of Ankara’s bid for EU accession, connot tolerate the Europeans in Karabakh. So, part of his policy to mend ties with Armenia is aimed at preventing Western influence in Caucasus.
Furthermore, Turkey finds itself a country of interest in Karabakh developments and seeks to direct the negotiations between Azerbaijan and Iran to its interests. Having in mind that Iran is concerned about the Azerbaijani-Armenian tensions and seeks to mediate for peace, Erdogan plans to distance Baku and Yerevan leaders from Iran and take the mediation initiative himself. Iran has repeatedly warned about Baku's ambitious policies and openly asserted it does not allow changes to regional borders.
Erdogan's policy of closeness to Armenia can be investigated from another angle. Turkey is heading to 2023 elections and Erdogan seeks another four years in office and to do so he needs foreign policy successes to which takes credit. In the past three years, economic crisis took its tolls on the Turkish economy and drew discontentment with the government's performance and at the same time increased the opposition voices day by day. The president thinks that mending ties with the regional states will improve his popularity and win him another four years in power. The opposition parties regularly accusing him of radical policies that damaged Ankara ties to regional countries over the past decade. They are instrumentalizing his foreign policy setbacks to drive him out of power.
At a time that Erdogan is trying to rebuild ties with Armenia ahead of the presidential elections, if the opposition secure a victory in the vote, the Turkish foreign policy will not match what Erdogan is now striving for as his goals and possibly Ankara's course of interaction with the neighbors change outright.