AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): Tensions are on the rise between Moscow and Brussels over Ukraine. With the Ukrainian crisis flaring up, the Russian forces, including state-of-the-art S-400 missile defenses, are being deployed to Belarus for military drills. Meanwhile, Britain said it would increase the military aids to the ally Ukraine. The American Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned Moscow that if any of its forces crosses the Ukrainian border, it should expect severe consequences.
In response to the provocations, the Russians have arranged war games, dismissing the Western frequent "false claims" about the plans to invade Ukraine.
Meanwhile, political officials on both sides have begun talks to prevent further escalation. Blinken, who was on an emergency trip to Europe due to the escalation of the crisis in Ukraine, met with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov.
But how likely is a war in Ukraine? What's behind the Western media exaggeration about the Ukrainian crisis? What's behind Russia's continuation of its offensive gesture?
Western goals about exaggeration on Ukraine invasion plan
In the past few days, Western media, officials, and political observers have unprecedentedly speculated about an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine. The propaganda comes while Moscow rejects any plan to invade the neighboring country and accuses the West of creating tensions and threatening national security by stationing NATO forces closer to its borders in Eastern Europe. Speaking of Western objectives behind such heavy anti-Russian media campaign, two essential goals are mentionable:
First goal can be building deterrence against a powerful Russia. In other words, by this media propaganda, the West seeks to prevent a likely invasion of Ukraine in the near or far future.
But Russian government officials believe that such a media campaign which has essentially no real basis is intended to drag Russia into a war. Recently, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stressed that Western claims that Russia was preparing to invade Ukraine were a propaganda cover to provoke Moscow. In fact, from Moscow's point of view, the West intends to use its provocative rhetoric to sink the region into a major crisis, with large and unpredictable negative dimensions. Actually, the Western countries intend to militarize the Ukraine crisis and open the door for NATO to enter the crisis, in order to bring Western military organization closer to Russian borders.
Russian offensive-style military buildup
Despite repeated Russian political statements that Moscow's intention for attacking Kiev was unrealistic and media-promoted, the question is why the Russian military continues to amass its forces on Ukraine's borders. In answer to this question, one can point to a very important issue: The Russian concern about NATO expansion.
In the current situation, Russia's main demand is to stop any political, military and diplomatic influence of NATO in the east. Recent remarks of Lavrov are expressive of this concern: he said: "It is absolutely essential to ensure that Ukraine never and never becomes a member of NATO."
The NATO expansion eastward after 1997 seems to justify this Russian obsession. In the post-1997 years, 14 countries– Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia, Montenegro, Albania, Northern Macedonia, and Bulgaria, respectively, once Soviet republics, joined NATO. Recently, NATO has been trying to accept Ukraine as a new member.
Such a scenario is totally unacceptable to the Russians, who are even willing to intervene militarily to overthrow the Western-led Ukraine ruling party. Although NATO has already reached the borders of Estonia and Latvia with Russia, the reality is that Ukraine's strategic position in the Russian agenda has led the latter to take a more offensive stance.
Two likely scenarios about possible Ukraine war
There are two scenarios when we analyze Ukraine crisis status. The first and probable scenario is that a large part of the propaganda about the possibility of a military conflict in Ukraine is the result of an artificial increase in tensions. The fact is that a large part of the seriousness and focus on Ukraine crisis is the result of widespread media propaganda on both parties of the crisis. That all the responsibility for such propaganda is placed on the West's shoulders does not reflect all the reality. At the media level, Moscow insists that its threats against Ukraine are real if Kiev breaches the red lines. However, the important point is that the whole possibility of war in Ukraine cannot be assessed as artificial and in case of a surprise, a war is likely to occur.
Yet another scenario is that the possibility of a conflict between the two sides has a real basis, and in the near future a conflict in eastern Ukraine is highly likely. Russia's support for separatists in eastern Ukraine is itself a source of crisis, and the deployment of 100,000 Russian troops near the borders with Ukraine can not be ignored. Russian deployment is worrisome to Ukraine and the West, as in 2014 in a lightening move annexed Crimea Peninsula to its territory. Crimea was originally a Russian territory given as a gift to Ukraine by the Soviet rule in 1954.
This scenario has been producing tensions over the past few months. There have been limited clashes in eastern Ukraine and strong-toned Western warnings to Russia. London, for example, announced recently its would arm Ukrainian forces with short-range anti-tank missiles. Most likely are additional economic sanctions against Russia from US and the EU.
Putin and facing off NATO at Kiev station
Another important point regarding Ukraine crisis is Russian President Vladimir Putin's reading of the brewing developments and equations on the borders with Ukraine. At present, Putin has drawn two red lines: Making sure that NATO would not expand eastward and Ukraine would not join military bloc. These wishes were made as demands in talks with the West.
Moreover, Putin never approves of Russian isolation by NATO and American policy. In fact, in Putin's view, the goal of Washington and its allies' claims about Moscow's intention to invade Ukraine is to weaken and isolate Russia regionally and internationally. Putin recently held that Russia has reached a no-further-retreat point.
Additionally, Moscow seeks status quo in Ukraine case all to drive Crimea annexation case off Western agenda and make the latter accept it as an irreversible reality. Since adding Crimea to its territory, Russia has been backing pro-Russian insurgents in eastern Ukraine who have since been at a deadly war with the Ukrainian army. They are in control of parts of the east. Russia tries to save the status quo at regional levels, and even beyond Ukraine, to prevent upsetting the balance of power to its detriment. To this end, the Russians said they would do whatever they can to help Kiev settle Donbas region's conflict, as they remain committed to Normandy Format and Minsk Agreement, both are seeking settlement to Ukraine crisis. Russian active and direct role in Kazakhstan and Belarusia domestic crises, which are apparently incited by the West, are other examples of Moscow's effort to save the status quo.
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