AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): Despite a recent Russian-mediated deal between Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders for implementing last year's agreement and defusing Karabakh tensions, reports from the borders of two neighbors about occasional clashes with casualties are constant. With each side giving great sensitivity to the issue, a new war can spark any moment.
Meanwhile, one of the diplomatic initiatives to restore stability to the disputed region is 3+3 dialogue platform that held on Friday its first session by presence of representatives of the members states.
The proposal to form a 3+3 Caucasus dialogue platform, which includes the three Caucasusian states of Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia, as well as the three "big neighbors" namely Russia, Iran and Turkey, was made by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov earlier last month during Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir-Abdollahian's visit to Moscow to address security, economic and transportation issues in Caucasus.
The existence of regional efforts to settle the controversial, decades-long Karabakh dispute stems from concerns about consequences of crisis on regional peace and stability. Almost all related sides emphasize importance of a settlement. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey raised six-party platform idea last year.
3+3 negotiations; start of a tough road
The first round of talks of the new platform in Russia was reportedly based on the continuation of talks on the joint statement of the Sochi tripartite meeting, which gathered together the Russian President Vladimir Putin, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, to facilitate the implementation of agreements reached last year.
On January 11, the leaders of Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan decided at a meeting in Moscow to form a task force of the three countries' deputy FMs to focus on establishing transportation corridors and expanding economic cooperation in Karabakh region. The results of the task force's talks were unveiled at a recent trilateral meeting in Sochi in the form of an agreement on establishing mechanisms for demarcation of the borders and unblocking of transportation corridors.
According to the Russian foreign ministry, the two sides, namely Azerbaijan and Armenia, also discussed "the development of multilateral regional cooperation", including trade, economy, transportation, and cultural-humanitarian issues.
However, holding of this meeting clearly shows that providing the conditions for the implementation of the agreements requires regional cooperation and the job should not yet be assumed done.
For example, just hours after Friday's meeting, the Armenian foreign ministry said in a statement: "The Republic of Azerbaijan is constantly increasing its unfounded rhetoric about the so-called Zangezur corridor in violation of November 9, 2020, January 11, and recent Sochi statements." Meanwhile, on Saturday, news broke about a renewed border clash between the two countries' militaries, indicating that they are far from peace.
Another challenge is Georgia's unwillingness to take part in Russia talks. The Georgian foreign ministry stated that it is not taking part in the platform but will propose its own format for pro-peace negotiations.
Georgia and Russia suspended diplomatic relations after the 2008 war. However, the two countries have been holding informal trade and economic talks since 2013.
At the end of the Sochi talks, the Russian foreign ministry announced in a press release that the doors of the new platform are open for Georgia to enter the talks.
Where is Georgia in the story?
Georgia is one of the three republics that make up the South Caucasus region. Closeness to Mountainous Karabakh region affects its security, economic, and political conditions. For example, there is a great deal of exchanged dependence on transportation routes among Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. For its development, Azerbaijan oil industry depends on transit of technical supplies through Georgia and Armenia for its export and import to the outside world on Georgia transit routes.
As part of a program for integration with China's Belt and Road Initiative, which was unveiled by the Chinese leader Xi Jingpin in 2017, Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway project was inaugurated linking Asia to Europe. So, Georgia is one of the beneficiary states when it comes to regional transit routes.
From another aspect, there are Azerbaijani and Armenian minorities in Georgia that carry potentials for problems among the three countries. Each of these states has to set its security lines based on common security considerations.
The peace's big chance for economic growth in the region
The second Karabakh war changed a 25-year-old status quo. Changing the geographical borders and the geopolitical environment of Karabakh region was one of the main goals of last year's war, which was started by Azerbaijan at the instigation of Turkey. Road and railway transportation between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan via Armenia, which connected the South Caucasus to Europe via Turkey ceased in 1993.
Creating a new transit corridor and re-linking Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan and Turkey by cutting off the border between Iran and Azerbaijan is a goal pursued by Baku during both the war and the ceasefire. Given the blow it could deal to the neighborly interests and also outlook of peace in the region, the project has proven extremely sensitive.
Now, a year later, according to the 9-point ceasefire, the Armenian side will withdraw from seven areas around Mountainous Karabakh. Russian peacekeepers will control the Lachin Corridor, which connects Karabakh to Armenia, and the Russian Security Service (FSB) will monitor the highway between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan.
Along with the efforts of Turkey and Azerbaijan to host a transit route connecting China and Europe, like Trans-Caspian Corridor, which covers the ports of the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea, Russia and Iran have also unveiled a geopolitical model of cooperation in the South Caucasus, like the North-South Corridor, to make a balance. By concluding a long-term strategic cooperation agreement with China and formal membership in the Shanghai Economic Organization, Iran is practically consolidating its role in advancing the major transit projects in the Central Asian region and is in fact one of the main corridors for the implementation of regional transit projects.
What in the middle of these competitions necessitates cooperation is the need for peace and settlement in South Caucasus with a consideration of interests of actors as a key ground for regional economic growth.
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