AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): While the Saudi decline to condemn the Israeli normalization with some Arab states prompted speculations about Riyadh plans to join it, more than a year after the deal the speculations have not materialized. However, recent symbolic measures showing that the Saudis interest to step in this path has considerably increased.
The Israeli state-owned broadcasting network Kan reported that a private jet left Ben-Gurion Airport on Monday evening and landed at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh on Tuesday morning, after a few-hours stop in Amman, Jordan. The flight to the Saudi capital follows the first flight from Saudi Arabia to the Israeli regime.
The importance of the symbolic Saudi actions these days is further understood by looking at the performance of Bahrain and the UAE as normalization vanguards. At least a year before the agreement was given publicity, Bahrain and the UAE took controversial political measures, such as holding international meetings on the implementation of the deal of century, and non-political measures, such as the travel of academic and religious delegations and sending athletes to the occupied territories, in a bid to reduce the sensitivities and prepare the public opinion for the project.
With this in mind, it is certain that the Saudi rulers are taking symbolic measures to gauge domestic and foreign reactions and assess the opposition of a range of religious conservatives who are already angry with the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for his so-called social reforms especially when it comes to women and promotion of the Western lifestyle with non-Islamic manifestations.
Bin Salman’s big gamble
Essentially, there is no doubt that bin Salman as the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia seeks to put aside the political legacy of his father’s predecessor King Abdullah bin Abdelaziz in the Palestinian case which is a proposal for a two-state solution based on the 1967 borders. Prince Mohammed’s desire to ascend the throne is so strong that he is willing to sacrifice not only the aspirations of the Palestinian people but even the political legacy of the past Saudi rulers in the Palestinian cause in order to gain the support of the West, especially the White House leaders. Riyadh’s ambiguous stances over the past year have shown that there is no single voice or policy in the Saudi royal palace on the normalization issue, and a range of Saudi leaders, especially King Salman, still insist on continuing to support King Abdullah's initiative. For example, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud in August said his country was still committed to the "Arab peace initiative," adding that "anything is possible if this initiative is adopted”, apparently tying normalization with Tel Aviv to adoption of the Arab initiative.
However, it seems that a figure like bin Salman, who is paranoically unconfident about the future of his political position as the ruler of Saudi Arabia, given the many rivals and enemies he has among royals, sees the best road to the throne in using the American and Israeli-build power bridge, even if at the expense of opposition of the ultraconservatives and further destruction of the foundations of the religious legitimacy of government.
Balance-making in the face of Axis of Resistance
Another reason taking bin Salman to pro-normalization measures goes beyond his power ambitions and has to do with the Saudi Arabia’s regional security factor decline in the face of rival actors.
Saudi Arabia's militarism has now run into a stalemate after five years of crime and spending billions on the campaign in Yemen, leaving the Saudi rulers with no choice but to accept defeat. The Yemen war was the result of a strategic mistake by the new and inexperienced Saudi rulers who were deceived by an American-Israeli plan. Actually, since the beginning there was an unrealistic view leading the Saudi decisions to conquer Yemen in a few days. Riyadh views the Yemeni war through the window of competition with the Iran-led Axis of Resistance. Such an approach brings to the Saudis a feeling of threat stemming from change of the power balance in the region especially with the presence of a new actor like Yemen’s Ansarullah Movement with high military capabilities next to the Saudi geopolitical links, like Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb straits, and economic arteries, like Aramco oil facilities.
Along with sending signals for de-escalation with Iran which is essentially aimed at finding a way out of Yemen quagmire, the Saudis signal their movement towards Axis of Resistance’s archenemy Israeli regime in show of Riyadh’s efforts to build a balance with the rivals via coalescing with Tel Aviv.
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