Dubious terror of “Ihab al-Wazni”, civil activist in Karbala which took place in early May 2021, followed by the terror of “Hisham al-Mashhadani” civil activist and a member of Azm Coalition (among the coalitions attributed to Sunnis, established with other figures like Salim al-Jabouri, Khalid al-Obeidi, and Jamal al-Karbouli), followed by street protests, publicity of regional media and intervention of some trans-regional countries such as England have all helped the speedy circulation of such whispers.

Supporters and opponents of early election

Internal movements and external interventions formed two paradigms between supporters and opponents of parliamentary election which is going to be held on October 10, 2021.

     1. Supporters

A review of different quotations and opinions circulate inside Iraq show that “Shi’ite Islamist” parties and personalities as well as “a part of Kurds” insist on holding the election on its due time. They are, by no means, supporting the idea of suspension or cancellation of the election.

A range so called the rule of law headed by Noori al-Maleki, the National Wisdom Movement headed by Seyed Ammar Hakim, Fath Coalition headed by Hadi Ameri, Sadrist Movement headed by Muqtada al-Sadr and al-Ebadi movement are categorized in this paradigm. Al-maleki has said in this connection that:” It is not acceptable to postpone the early parliamentary election”. Seyed Ammar Hakin has also emphasized on paving the ample ground for holding a transparent election. President Barham Saleh of Iraq has also supported holding of election on planned time, and called holding of timely election as a national right and popular demand.

 

     2- Opponents

Some of Iraqi internal players such as the inclinations affiliated to protesters and movements who came out of the 2019 demonstrations onward are now looking for the postponement or boycotting the election and insist on their demand, while they emphasized holding of election before.

In this regard, Ayad Allawi, Head of National Movement posted in his Tweeter page that:” We have two options in front of us; postponement of the election or boycotting it in case the suitable atmosphere is not created to materialize a safe and sound election”.

In the meantime, some of Arab media with tendency toward the US are emphasizing the boycott of the election. For example, the al-Horra site had a title some time ago which said:” Iraqi demonstration; hundreds poured into Tahrir square and called for boycotting the election”. The site had reported:” Who killed me? Continuation of terrors threatens early election in Iraq”. Okaz and al-Riyadh newspapers, biased to Saudi Arabia concentrated on keywords like “large meetings” and “demand to boycott the election”. Communist Party of Iraq, “al-Beit al-Watani” movement and al-Sha’abol Eslah” are among other parties demanded for boycotting the election.

In addition to above mentioned groups and personalities, some of foreign countries including the US, UK, and Saudi Arabia, implicitly or explicitly, are looking for postponement or boycotting the election. They act differently about the modality of raising and following up their demand. For example, Stephan Hickey, the British Ambassador to Baghdad expressed doubtfully in an interview with one of Saudi biased media after the terror of Ihab-al Wazni, the civil activist, about holding of a safe and sound election in Iraq and on this very basis had called for non-holding of an early election.

A remarkable point is that some circles mostly including organizations and ringleaders attributed to last October demonstrations have introduced alternatives for early election that are extremely dangerous. In this regards, Ahmad Mulla Talal, former spokesman of Mostafa Al-. Kazemi, Iraqi Prime Minister, has proposed an alternative in a tweeter post that Iraq should be protectorate!

Behind the curtain of opponents of the election

It seems that opponents of early parliamentary election have understood that their like- minded supporters and candidates have not a big chance to win in the upcoming election contrary to previous predictions. The said movements include personalities, parties and players mostly opposing the Shi’ism and Hashd-o-Sha’bi (Popular Mobilization Forces). They have come to conclude that in the course of the upcoming election in October 2021 they will not gain their desired result.

The movement believes that strong integration among Shi’ites household will cause the Shi’ite movements and parties have an upper hand and win more seats in the parliamentary election. The movement believes that if this happens, any possibility to “change the structure of Iraqi parliament” will be taken from them. That’s why they see a contradiction between holding of an early election and their interests and benefits, on the top of which is changing the structure of Iraqi parliament.

Next point to be brought into one’s attention, is foreign countries intervention and planning including the US and England to prevent holding of the election. The reason is quite clear; strong possibility of victory of political movements near to axis of resistance in the upcoming election. The movements that are strongly opposing the presence of the US forces in Iraq and consider the Iraqi parliament as an effective and legal instrument for expelling the US and other foreign forces from Iraq. Sadr movement, Fath and Nasr Coalitions are categorized in this group. They have the largest chance to win the upcoming election.

Perspective of Election

The most frequently used keyword heard nowadays from internal and external opponents of early parliamentary election, is their insistence on holding election in an unsecure, unstable and unrest conditions, can’t be beneficial to the people of Iraq. The conditions through which the dubious measures and movements of some players including the US, England, Saudi Arabia and some like-minded movements aren’t ineffective. This is the case while the government, popular forces and other officials responsible for holding election and guaranteeing the security of election, have not bowed to such justification so far. Thus, they continue to emphasize on holding election.

Insecurity and unstable situation are not solid reasons for postponement or boycotting the election, because if it was the case, the election process should basically be shelved in some countries even developed European societies. It was just a few weeks ago that Presidential election was held in Syria, where the security and stability conditions are not suitable and the country is considered a crisis stricken one. There was no insecurity event reported and the turnout was at 79%.

It goes without saying that the internal situation of Iraq is insecure and unstable to some extent. The question is: Who is in charge of the situation? Answer is quite clear: those who have a louder voice to demand the boycott or postponement of the election in Iraq, i.e. the US, England and some of their regional partners; the two countries who consider the insecurity and unstable atmosphere for Iraq to serve them best with the least costs for the advancement of their policies and their interests.

The Americans have always prevented the democratic processes in Iraq which contradict their interests. Even today, they justify that the Iraqi situation is not a suitable for holding election, and thus intend to postpone it. This is the case while holding of the election as a national right and an effective mechanism, plays an important role to improve the unpleasant internal situation.

What is seen inside Iraq is that despite the internal, regional and international efforts to postpone or boycott the election, it will be held in due time. Because important section of parties, internal movements and also the government of Iraq have taken special measures to hold the election in October 2021, as if the Iraqi society can’t wait for the election anymore.




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