AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): Over the past days, Oman hosted a new round of negotiations on Yemen crisis between a Sana’a delegation and other foreign sides.
Although in the current situation the new US administration claims it seeks ways to end the devastating Saudi war on Yemen and fundamental changes have taken place on the battlefield and brought the attention to Muscat talks, this round of talks, like other various talks in the past, has failed to reach the conclusion needed to end the war and stop the Saudi and allies’ aggression against the Yemeni people.
On Thursday, Yemen’s Ansarullah Movement announced that the talks with the Americans on a political solution to the seven-year war have failed to bring forth positive results.
As for the reasons for the failure of this round of talks and its effects on the conditions of the warring parties, significant changes can be seen in the Yemeni peace negotiations.
Saudi defeat in the war
One of the most important changes in the Yemeni peace negotiations has to do with the side demanding ceasefire. Saudi Arabia's strategy for the Yemeni war has long changed from winning a military battle to adopting a war of attrition and gradually destroying Yemen through comprehensive sanctions targeting its economic infrastructure. This strategy has always encouraged the Saudis to take a pro-peace gesture by expressing the interest in going to the negotiating table as a cover amid mounting regional and international criticism and pressure. Just contrary to their claims, on the ground, they pursue military solution, an approach always pushing the talks to collapse.
In the current circumstances, however, the situation has changed fundamentally, and this time it is Riyadh that is working hard to stop the advances of the Yemenis towards the strategic province of Ma'rib, as well as the large-scale attacks deep into Saudi territory, which have become ordinary and uncontrollable. Still, Riyadh's unwillingness to make concessions on ending the siege and bombing have shown that the Saudis still prefer an erosive war as the only way to escape the defeat. Now Saudi Arabia and its largely-naïve Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is struggling to find ways to persuade the advancing Ansarullah, which also has the capability to create balance of terror with attacks on the Saudi infrastructure and vital sites, to agree to a tactical truce. The offer was strongly rejected by the Yemeni resistant movement. This paradigmatic change tells of Riyadh losing its superiority in the battle and seeking to cut the costs of defeat on the negotiating table.
Change of the determining player in the negotiations
The Muscat talks also demonstrated another important change and it is the change of who determines the course of talks. Ansarullah rejection of the Saudi and American suggestions is an issue that should not be easily passed. Once limited reopening of Sana’a airport and lifting Hudaydah port were triumphant privileges for Sana’a leaders in any talks but now rejection of such offers and demanding full reopening of Sana’a airport with the capability for global flights, lifting Hudaydah blockade, and ending air and ground attacks show that the movement is now the party that takes the initiative in the negotiations. Actually, the determining factor is no longer Saudi Arabia but Sana’a.
In February, the US special envoy to Yemen Tim Lenderking and the UN envoy to Yemen Martin Griffiths after a meeting with Ansarullah representatives in Jordan promised to advance peace talks in accordance with a UN plan that calls for reopening Hudaydah and ceasing the fire. The comments were rejected by Ansarullah as it argued that with its position and determining power on the battleground the offering was trivial. Mohammed Abdel Salam, Ansarullah’s spokesman, in a Twitter post said: “They deal with us for a living, a sheet of medicine, and freedom of movement.”
Mansour Hadi checkmated
Another change in favor of Ansarullah and Sana’a can even lead to removal of the resigned President Mansour Hadi and his weight from the stage of negotiations. This is an important change in the Yemeni crisis.
During the six years of brutal war against the Yemeni people, the most important tool used by the Saudis to justify their invasion has been restoration of the fugitive Hadi to power. With the Western support, the UN approved resolution 2216 that described any parallel government by the revolutionary forces in Sana’a illegal. In all these years, the Hadi’s instable and shaky governments were puppets to the Saudis and the Americans and supported the Saudi atrocities against the civilians and continued inhumane siege. But now, on the threshold of the expulsion of Saudi-affiliated mercenaries from Ma'rib province as the last stronghold of the Arab coalition in the north, as well as the stumbling of legitimacy of Mansour Hadi's cabinet in the south following a dispute with the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council, Mansour Hadi’s role and weight in the negotiations are unraveling while reciprocally the National Salvation Government in Sana’a witnesses international credit boost.
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Although in the current situation the new US administration claims it seeks ways to end the devastating Saudi war on Yemen and fundamental changes have taken place on the battlefield and brought the attention to Muscat talks, this round of talks, like other various talks in the past, has failed to reach the conclusion needed to end the war and stop the Saudi and allies’ aggression against the Yemeni people.
On Thursday, Yemen’s Ansarullah Movement announced that the talks with the Americans on a political solution to the seven-year war have failed to bring forth positive results.
As for the reasons for the failure of this round of talks and its effects on the conditions of the warring parties, significant changes can be seen in the Yemeni peace negotiations.
Saudi defeat in the war
One of the most important changes in the Yemeni peace negotiations has to do with the side demanding ceasefire. Saudi Arabia's strategy for the Yemeni war has long changed from winning a military battle to adopting a war of attrition and gradually destroying Yemen through comprehensive sanctions targeting its economic infrastructure. This strategy has always encouraged the Saudis to take a pro-peace gesture by expressing the interest in going to the negotiating table as a cover amid mounting regional and international criticism and pressure. Just contrary to their claims, on the ground, they pursue military solution, an approach always pushing the talks to collapse.
In the current circumstances, however, the situation has changed fundamentally, and this time it is Riyadh that is working hard to stop the advances of the Yemenis towards the strategic province of Ma'rib, as well as the large-scale attacks deep into Saudi territory, which have become ordinary and uncontrollable. Still, Riyadh's unwillingness to make concessions on ending the siege and bombing have shown that the Saudis still prefer an erosive war as the only way to escape the defeat. Now Saudi Arabia and its largely-naïve Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is struggling to find ways to persuade the advancing Ansarullah, which also has the capability to create balance of terror with attacks on the Saudi infrastructure and vital sites, to agree to a tactical truce. The offer was strongly rejected by the Yemeni resistant movement. This paradigmatic change tells of Riyadh losing its superiority in the battle and seeking to cut the costs of defeat on the negotiating table.
Change of the determining player in the negotiations
The Muscat talks also demonstrated another important change and it is the change of who determines the course of talks. Ansarullah rejection of the Saudi and American suggestions is an issue that should not be easily passed. Once limited reopening of Sana’a airport and lifting Hudaydah port were triumphant privileges for Sana’a leaders in any talks but now rejection of such offers and demanding full reopening of Sana’a airport with the capability for global flights, lifting Hudaydah blockade, and ending air and ground attacks show that the movement is now the party that takes the initiative in the negotiations. Actually, the determining factor is no longer Saudi Arabia but Sana’a.
In February, the US special envoy to Yemen Tim Lenderking and the UN envoy to Yemen Martin Griffiths after a meeting with Ansarullah representatives in Jordan promised to advance peace talks in accordance with a UN plan that calls for reopening Hudaydah and ceasing the fire. The comments were rejected by Ansarullah as it argued that with its position and determining power on the battleground the offering was trivial. Mohammed Abdel Salam, Ansarullah’s spokesman, in a Twitter post said: “They deal with us for a living, a sheet of medicine, and freedom of movement.”
Mansour Hadi checkmated
Another change in favor of Ansarullah and Sana’a can even lead to removal of the resigned President Mansour Hadi and his weight from the stage of negotiations. This is an important change in the Yemeni crisis.
During the six years of brutal war against the Yemeni people, the most important tool used by the Saudis to justify their invasion has been restoration of the fugitive Hadi to power. With the Western support, the UN approved resolution 2216 that described any parallel government by the revolutionary forces in Sana’a illegal. In all these years, the Hadi’s instable and shaky governments were puppets to the Saudis and the Americans and supported the Saudi atrocities against the civilians and continued inhumane siege. But now, on the threshold of the expulsion of Saudi-affiliated mercenaries from Ma'rib province as the last stronghold of the Arab coalition in the north, as well as the stumbling of legitimacy of Mansour Hadi's cabinet in the south following a dispute with the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council, Mansour Hadi’s role and weight in the negotiations are unraveling while reciprocally the National Salvation Government in Sana’a witnesses international credit boost.