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Analysis: Comeback now thinkable? Four Trump acquittal consequences

Analysis: Comeback now thinkable? Four Trump acquittal consequences

The failure of Trump impeachment motion in the Senate has drawn massive reflections both at home and abroad. The defeat of second Trump impeachment by many analysts is regarded as a major win for the former American president...

AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): The failure of Trump impeachment motion in the Senate has drawn massive reflections both at home and abroad. The defeat of second Trump impeachment by many analysts is regarded as a major win for the former American president, but the more important issue that needs to be taken into account is what consequences the second defeat of the democrats would have inside and outside the US.

Undoubtedly, the failure of Trump's impeachment means the continuation of Trumpism and the role-play of this New York billionaire in the domestic and foreign policy scene of the US. Although the charge of insurrection damages the credibility and prestige of Trump and his orbit in the short term, the Senate vote result will mean reviving his hopes for the future.

Shadow of Tramp dictatorship on the GOP

The first and perhaps most prominent consequence of the failure of Trump's second impeachment can be his domination of the Republican Party and the party’s departure from the usual practice of its traditions. In fact, the most important result of the Senate vote is that Trump's political future is still alive, and the gap created during the election is not going to close over the next four years. Trump, with millions of like-minded supporters, is considering a re-election to the White House and Congress, and even prominent Republican figures will not be able to confront him. Thus, the nightmare for America's capitalist political system continues.

In fact, the Republican senators' vote was a kind of endorsement of Donald Trump's dictatorship over his party. Republican lawmakers estimate that the party cannot win in the next Congress election without Trump advocacy and on the other hand, Trump’s presence on the competition scene will establish his power as an unrivalled actor.

Management crisis in the GOP

One noteworthy point is that by voting against the rebellion charges, the Republican senators did not support Trump but they put their party under his cover. In other words, they accepted dominance of his character and supremacy over the GOP. Traditionally, there are dual voices within the Republican Party— one moderate and one conservative— and always the party’s major approaches to different issues are an outcome of this contrast.

For example, during the party’s history, people like Senator Mitt Romney represented the moderate faction, and John Bolton, represented the conservative and extremist faction. These individuals and other political leaders of the Republican Party had a somewhat clear position, but now the party is under the leadership of a person, who over the past four years has shown no clear and predictable policy towards major home and foreign issues.

In fact, during his four years in office, Trump has shown that his personal interests took precedence over collective and partisan interests, and he was unwilling to compromise with either of the two main Republican factions. As we have seen, Trump has unabashedly verbally assaulted or fired Romney, former President Bush, former National Security Advisor John Bolton, former Secretary of Defense James Mattis and Mike Esper, and any Republican political activist who did not side with him during his administration.

The Republican Party, with its backing for Trump in the impeachment case, has been overshadowed by his power, and at a minimum, if the party leaders do not devise a coherent strategy for transition from him in the next few months, in the next four years they have to live a fear of Trump’s reactions. Even in the current conditions, the situation is so bad that many political observers believe that the Republican Party no longer exists. Rather, it is the President Trump's party that exists.

Demise of the American democracy and institutionalized gap in bipartisan system

Although the majorly Democratic motion against Trump has gone nowhere, the trend of the country’s developments should be deemed as a signal to break of the traditional structures and decline of democracy in the US. When some sociologists like Alexis de Tocqueville of France wrote books and articles in acclamation of the American democracy, they never predicted the American democracy and political society will reach such a low point. They never thought one day the American citizens encircle and seize the symbol of the rule of law and threaten the lawmakers with death.

The gap between the Republicans and the Democrats is now institutionalized, and it looks like as soon as the Republicans come to power in the House of Representatives, they will take the same Democratic approach to impeach Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. In the not-too-distant future, this can push the American democratic traditions to the edge of collapse.

US foreign policy power compromised

The failure of Trump's impeachment in the Congress is expected to have a significant impact on the foreign policy, in addition to the domestic level. In the beginning, Trump's incitement of the protesters to attack Congress caused foreign countries and US allies to think that in addition to Trump’s presidency end he would be permanently removed from US politics and there would be no concern about his return to the White House. But with vote of the Republicans, now the US allies’ perplexity about the country’s foreign policy is more than any other time.

As the allies during Trump presidency underwent the plight of tolerating him, they now regard President Joe Biden’s foreign policy with doubt and feel with all their heart the threat of Trump comeback in 2024. Actually, experiencing Trump’s exit from the most important treaties and agreements which took years for the past administrations to arrange, Washington’s allies are now definitely doubtful and cautious about if they should negotiate and reach agreement with the new president while clouds of Trump return remain in the American skies.



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The failure of Trump impeachment motion in the Senate has drawn massive reflections both at home and abroad. The defeat of second Trump impeachment by many analysts is regarded as a major win for the former American president, but the more important issue that needs to be taken into account is what consequences the second defeat of the democrats would have inside and outside the US.

Undoubtedly, the failure of Trump's impeachment means the continuation of Trumpism and the role-play of this New York billionaire in the domestic and foreign policy scene of the US. Although the charge of insurrection damages the credibility and prestige of Trump and his orbit in the short term, the Senate vote result will mean reviving his hopes for the future.

Shadow of Tramp dictatorship on the GOP

The first and perhaps most prominent consequence of the failure of Trump's second impeachment can be his domination of the Republican Party and the party’s departure from the usual practice of its traditions. In fact, the most important result of the Senate vote is that Trump's political future is still alive, and the gap created during the election is not going to close over the next four years. Trump, with millions of like-minded supporters, is considering a re-election to the White House and Congress, and even prominent Republican figures will not be able to confront him. Thus, the nightmare for America's capitalist political system continues.

In fact, the Republican senators' vote was a kind of endorsement of Donald Trump's dictatorship over his party. Republican lawmakers estimate that the party cannot win in the next Congress election without Trump advocacy and on the other hand, Trump’s presence on the competition scene will establish his power as an unrivalled actor.

Management crisis in the GOP

One noteworthy point is that by voting against the rebellion charges, the Republican senators did not support Trump but they put their party under his cover. In other words, they accepted dominance of his character and supremacy over the GOP. Traditionally, there are dual voices within the Republican Party— one moderate and one conservative— and always the party’s major approaches to different issues are an outcome of this contrast.

For example, during the party’s history, people like Senator Mitt Romney represented the moderate faction, and John Bolton, represented the conservative and extremist faction. These individuals and other political leaders of the Republican Party had a somewhat clear position, but now the party is under the leadership of a person, who over the past four years has shown no clear and predictable policy towards major home and foreign issues.

In fact, during his four years in office, Trump has shown that his personal interests took precedence over collective and partisan interests, and he was unwilling to compromise with either of the two main Republican factions. As we have seen, Trump has unabashedly verbally assaulted or fired Romney, former President Bush, former National Security Advisor John Bolton, former Secretary of Defense James Mattis and Mike Esper, and any Republican political activist who did not side with him during his administration.

The Republican Party, with its backing for Trump in the impeachment case, has been overshadowed by his power, and at a minimum, if the party leaders do not devise a coherent strategy for transition from him in the next few months, in the next four years they have to live a fear of Trump’s reactions. Even in the current conditions, the situation is so bad that many political observers believe that the Republican Party no longer exists. Rather, it is the President Trump's party that exists.

Demise of the American democracy and institutionalized gap in bipartisan system

Although the majorly Democratic motion against Trump has gone nowhere, the trend of the country’s developments should be deemed as a signal to break of the traditional structures and decline of democracy in the US. When some sociologists like Alexis de Tocqueville of France wrote books and articles in acclamation of the American democracy, they never predicted the American democracy and political society will reach such a low point. They never thought one day the American citizens encircle and seize the symbol of the rule of law and threaten the lawmakers with death.

The gap between the Republicans and the Democrats is now institutionalized, and it looks like as soon as the Republicans come to power in the House of Representatives, they will take the same Democratic approach to impeach Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. In the not-too-distant future, this can push the American democratic traditions to the edge of collapse.

US foreign policy power compromised

The failure of Trump's impeachment in the Congress is expected to have a significant impact on the foreign policy, in addition to the domestic level. In the beginning, Trump's incitement of the protesters to attack Congress caused foreign countries and US allies to think that in addition to Trump’s presidency end he would be permanently removed from US politics and there would be no concern about his return to the White House. But with vote of the Republicans, now the US allies’ perplexity about the country’s foreign policy is more than any other time.

As the allies during Trump presidency underwent the plight of tolerating him, they now regard President Joe Biden’s foreign policy with doubt and feel with all their heart the threat of Trump comeback in 2024. Actually, experiencing Trump’s exit from the most important treaties and agreements which took years for the past administrations to arrange, Washington’s allies are now definitely doubtful and cautious about if they should negotiate and reach agreement with the new president while clouds of Trump return remain in the American skies.


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ویژه‌نامه ارتحال آیت‌الله تسخیری
پیام رهبر انقلاب به مسلمانان جهان به مناسبت حج 1441 / 2020
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